So...I'm scared

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    • Giladis wrote:

      I have been through two self isolations during March. First when I was sick (don't know if it was COVID back then people who weren't abroad or haven't had a confirmed contact with a person that was weren't tested) and then when my mom got exposed to a COVID patient in her lab. Thankfully both she and dad tested negative but the days waiting for the result were stressful.


      I already went through a nasty pneumonia a couple of months back and I am slightly concerned for myself every time I need to go outside. I am waiting for serological tests to be made available so I can go and check if I had it or not to hopefully remove at least one worry.
      My sister in law was sick back in mid-March with what seemed to be just a nasty cold. She got tested for Covid which came back negative. But now I'm seeing some doctors who are saying that some tests can only test for a certain level of concentration of Covid. Meaning you COULD be carrying it but have a test come back negative.

      Jesus, I hope that's not true!

      I mean if the tests don't definitively detect it, what the hell good is it?
      There are many magic rings in the world Bilbo Baggins, and none of them should be used lightly!
    • Baranovich wrote:

      I have to wonder how many of these people who may be in the hospital with these things or having them at home are being classified as "Covid" patients without actually being tested.
      None. Only patients who tests shows as positive are counted as COVID patients. The problem is quite opposite. There are probably a fair few more people infected with COVID than the numbers show. We just don't know how many.


      piteglio wrote:

      i think i was born on the same day as you, and i also have been diagnosed with mycoplasma pneumonia a couple months ago. this is a quadruple 6 roll! : D
      :D

      St. Mark's day?

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    • Baranovich wrote:

      Meaning you COULD be carrying it but have a test come back negative.

      Jesus, I hope that's not true!

      I mean if the tests don't definitively detect it, what the hell good is it?
      There are two issues here.

      One - US originally had faulty tests.

      Two - every test can result in false negative or false positive. Each test has to values - sensitivity and accuracy. You want both to be as high as possible and WHO generally recommends both to be above 95%, but there is always a chance for the test to show a wrong result. That is why before patients are declared cured you perform at least 2 tests 24h apart that must show negative, if one of those is positive another test is performed 24-48h later depending on the health regulations of the country.


      If you are a carrier but your virus load is so low that the test fails to pick it up your probability to infect others is also significantly reduced but never nonexistent. :)

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    • Baranovich wrote:

      Calisson wrote:

      Giladis wrote:

      I already went through a nasty pneumonia a couple of months back
      There are unconfirmed reports in Italy that cases of "nasty pneumonia" happened shortly before the covid-19 outbreak.Some people interpret that to be the same virus, except it was not identified as such.Big, big caveat: this is not much more than hearsay, I haven't read anything remotely scientific on the matter.
      But you might be interested to keep an eye. If confirmed, you may wish to get your serum tested for anti-virus, when test becomes available.
      I think that's a really important piece of this. People are of course still getting sick from all the usual things during the pandemic. Regular colds, regular flu, lung distress from pollution, smoking related problems, etc.
      I have to wonder how many of these people who may be in the hospital with these things or having them at home are being classified as "Covid" patients without actually being tested.

      That's what makes self-isolating and social distancing so damn important in the U.S. especially, and especially now. We totally, totally failed to mass test early on, I mean it was a joke how few people here got tested.

      So we don't really know who exactly has it. All we know is it's "out there" like a sinister mist floating on the wind. (Which isn't of course how it's spread), but people begin to mystify it in their heads which can lead to panic and mental health breakdowns.
      More than that.
      There are reports in Europe about how people come to the hospital for any disease and come back home with Covid (and die).
      Because the hospital staff is badly protected and so are just basically infecting everyone that comes near.



      Giladis wrote:

      St. Mark's day?
      Oh, you're one of those people because of whom everyone thinks my birthday is 1st September ? :)

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    • Ghiznuk wrote:

      Oh, you're one of those people because of whom everyone thinks my birthday is 1st September ?
      Because of Knowledge Day? Not sure I understand the question :)

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    • Baranovich wrote:

      I can't sugar coat it. That pathological thinking, that mindset is partially why we have the worst case curve in the world right now and why our nurses are wearing garbage bags for protection while China's nurses have full hazmat suits. Not going to debate U.S. vs. China as ideologies. I'm merely pointing out that China had all the protective gear they needed to fight this thing. We didn't. In fact they had enough to give other countries surplus stuff they didn't need. Meanwhile we have nurses going to local welding shops and garages to scrounge for masks.
      1. They purchased 2.2 Billion Masks between January and the start of February. Before declaring that Human to Human transmission was possible, or before the WHO declared that travel bans should be enacted upon foreign travel coming from China.

      2. They Nationalized the factories of an American company; 3m. Which is why 3M is in hot water with U.S. Federal Government now and why there are issues with the U.S. government using the Defense Production Act to direct them to send PPE to the U.S. (Which has affected Canada ad not Germany) Because prior to using the DPA the 3M was selling all of its PPE to foreign countries and hadn't sold any to American States. (Canada not getting its ordered PPE is a big issue and I hope it gets rectified, I haven't followed up on news to check).

      3. Many countries, especially One Belt One Road initiative countries such as Italy, sent China loads of PPE. Much of which is now being resold to those same countries. They haven't "given" any one anything, they are charging.

      4. Most PPE is made in China. The supply chain in many countries does not have the materials or industrialization to make PPE once China stopped allowing nationalized businesses to sell outside of China. So the shortage on PPE was created by China's market dominance as the worlds factory putting China in a position to serve itself first. The CCP has horded the majority of PPE. Which it is now selling to countries for good PR.

      5. China slowed their spread by welding people into their homes, dragging them away in metal boxes, quarantining children without adult family members to provide supervision, and vice versa, they quarantined parents and forced them to leave children behind home alone, china didn't provide food to anyone in Wuhan for 2 months.

      Check out China In Focus on Youtube for reporting on China that does not have a bias concerning making CCP happy for the news agencies own profit.

      The thinking of the woman you quoted is not something I would begin to defend. Assigning a status of Good or Bad to something is entirely too juvenile. I'd prefer to think that this world is filled by a majority of people who desire to be altruistic. That such people have love for all humanity and desire the best for each other. That this desire is broad in scope, and isn't limited by arbitrary definitions such as nationality. When I served in Iraq, I genuinely wanted the best for the people of Iraq. I hoped that in some way my actions could make their country freer and safer. Hearing fellow soldiers and sailors refer to the enemy as, "the bad guys" always upset me. It should be understood that people use such dehumanizing terms as "Bad Guys" in order to reduce the mental and emotional cost of there own actions. So what that woman was doing, was reducing the burden of knowing that some people out there are suffering more than her family is. By defining them as "Bad Countries" she is mentally avoiding the need to recognize the countries citizenry as people like herself. I think it isn't excusable, but I cannot condemn her either. I haven't talked to my children about the horrible abuses people in authoritarian regimes are suffering. They are young and I don't want to burden them with that knowledge until they known how to ask about it.

      Now, my wife is Chinese, so our (hers and mine) opinions are biased against the CCP. We truly feel that authoritarian regimes are evil and actively work to suppress the altruism of humanity. People in China are worse off for living there because of the human rights abuses of the CCP. in that sense, "Good" countries that respect the God given rights of their citizens are better off and should be better off in the long run.

      The post was edited 1 time, last by echoCTRL ().

    • Giladis wrote:

      Baranovich wrote:

      Meaning you COULD be carrying it but have a test come back negative.

      Jesus, I hope that's not true!

      I mean if the tests don't definitively detect it, what the hell good is it?
      There are two issues here.
      One - US originally had faulty tests.

      Two - every test can result in false negative or false positive. Each test has to values - sensitivity and accuracy. You want both to be as high as possible and WHO generally recommends both to be above 95%, but there is always a chance for the test to show a wrong result. That is why before patients are declared cured you perform at least 2 tests 24h apart that must show negative, if one of those is positive another test is performed 24-48h later depending on the health regulations of the country.


      If you are a carrier but your virus load is so low that the test fails to pick it up your probability to infect others is also significantly reduced but never nonexistent. :)
      The faulty test issue was mostly exacerbated by labs other than the CDC. It wasn't that the tests themselves were faulty, it was that their was an error in how to process it. Small difference though. The tests still worked if processed in a specific manor. There were also issues with authorizing different laboratories for the processing the testing. Procedures designed to cut Red Tape actually made it harder for Labs to get authorized. This is why getting Thermal-Fischer to start processing tests was huge for the U.S. and is in part why the U.S. is processing more tests every 2 days then other countries have done in total. Still, even with the ability to test 150,000 or more a day, with a population of 330,000,000 it is going to be impossible to test everyone. It would take about 3 years. News media claiming that the best way to solve this issue is testing are kidding themselves about the magnitude of such a task. Even once a vaccine is out, it will take a few years to inoculate everyone. Don't forget the world as a whole has to produce Billions of vaccines.

      I think people have gotten used to the sound of "Million" it doesn't seem like as much as it used to. But, 1 million is a huge number. So is One Hundred Thousand. Our sense of scale has been lost.
    • echoCTRL wrote:

      Before declaring that Human to Human transmission was possible
      Didn't that happen on 20th of January.

      Also wouldn't that be a natural response in case you were expecting a major epidemic?

      I don't particularly trust numbers we got out of China but at the same time I do not see problems in the timeline in December and January.

      echoCTRL wrote:

      They Nationalized the factories of an American company
      Weren't those factories only producing under 3M licence?


      echoCTRL wrote:

      Check out China In Focus on Youtube
      That is an awful channel as far as bias goes. That channel is the polar opposite of PRC state media and I trust it as much as I trust PRC state TV.


      echoCTRL wrote:

      News media claiming that the best way to solve this issue is testing are kidding themselves about the magnitude of such a task.
      It is in specific stages of the epidemic. Testing is crucial to be able to identify, quarantine and treat the infected.

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    • The interesting fact of course is that 3M also has factories in Canada. And they make PPE, except masks, that is then exported to the US. Not only that, but the raw material for the masks made in the US (a special wood pulp) is sourced entirely in canada. Trudeau has already hinted at maybe cutting off those raw materials if the masks they paid for aren't delivered.
      I have whirl’d with the earth at the dawningWhen the sky was a vaporous flameI have seen the dark universe yawning,
      Where the black planets roll without aim;
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    • Giladis wrote:

      echoCTRL wrote:

      Before declaring that Human to Human transmission was possible
      Didn't that happen on 20th of January. You are right about that. They made their purchases on Jan 24th, which is still well before WHO approved of countries enacting Travel bans.
      Also wouldn't that be a natural response in case you were expecting a major epidemic? 2.2 BILLION is still an incredible amount, and deprives the rest of the world. I struggle to believe that it wasn't an intentional act made to gain finacial benefit at the expense of the rest of the world of needed PPE.

      I don't particularly trust numbers we got out of China but at the same time I do not see problems in the timeline in December and January.

      echoCTRL wrote:

      They Nationalized the factories of an American company
      Weren't those factories only producing under 3M licence? The best details are here in the Congressional Research Service report. HERE ". Several prominent U.S. companies, including 3M,have indicated they do not have PRC government authorization to export." Here is some examples of non-3M instances.

      "Medicom, a Canadian manufacturer, has three factories in China, but the Chinese government has requisitioned all production and nothing is being exported, according to the company's COO, Guillaume Laverdure. " CNN Article here

      echoCTRL wrote:

      Check out China In Focus on Youtube
      That is an awful channel as far as bias goes. That channel is the polar opposite of PRC state media and I trust it as much as I trust PRC state TV. Because Falun Gong practitioners are known for evil bias against China. They are a part of New Tang Dynasty and are admitedly biased against the CCP. So go ahead and coordinate their coverage with other countries that do not have a vested interest in China's markets. For instance you could use India Today for cross validation. And, then there is the BBC which has plenty of reports you can use to cross reference China In Focus. And, it all matches up.

      echoCTRL wrote:

      News media claiming that the best way to solve this issue is testing are kidding themselves about the magnitude of such a task.
      It is in specific stages of the epidemic. Testing is crucial to be able to identify, quarantine and treat the infected.
      Absolutely, for places that are still able to practice containment, it is imperative to test. It is also imperative to test antibodies. A point of care test is huge. Testing is a life saving tool and I in no way mean to diminish claims that testing is important.

      However here in the U.S. the news media offers up testing as the simple no brainier solution that could solve all the world's ills right now and they claim, with no proof, that as the richest nation on earth the U.S. should be able to test everyone.

      They are contending that via testing the US can get back to a point in which it is practicing containment rather than mitigation. That time has long past and we would now have to test the populations of entire major metropolitan areas. That just isn't feasible. For instance I live in a city of 100,000 people. That would be 2/3 to 1/2 of the entire testing capacity of the united states. There seems to be a belief that processing over 150,000 tests each day isn't impressive or an accomplishment. I think that is an enormous accomplishment.

      It would be nice to test everyone and then isolate the infected. But, that just isn't a realistic possibility. That is the kind of testing measure I hear talked about. And, I believe that due to scale it isn't possible. Now, in some countries, I hope that we can get Abbot machines out to you and maybe your country can use them for virus containment.

      The post was edited 3 times, last by echoCTRL ().

    • Eldan wrote:

      The interesting fact of course is that 3M also has factories in Canada. And they make PPE, except masks, that is then exported to the US. Not only that, but the raw material for the masks made in the US (a special wood pulp) is sourced entirely in canada. Trudeau has already hinted at maybe cutting off those raw materials if the masks they paid for aren't delivered.
      That whole situation needs to be quickly remedied. A quick fix and an "I'm Sorry, Canada." is in order.
    • echoCTRL wrote:

      2.2 BILLION is still an incredible amount, and deprives the rest of the world.
      Considering the size of China and the amount of PPE needed on a daily basis during an epidemic of this kind and if you want to use it as health regulations proscribe 2.2 billion is not as much as it looks. Especially since at the time when the purchase was made there were less than 0.3% of cases outside PRC.

      I agree with you that both types of testing are needed to get the proper picture but I refuse to accept that the richest country in the world is not capable of doing what needs to be done. From everything I have seen there is just plain reluctance to do what needs to be done at the highest levels of government and spreading downwards along mostly partisan lines.

      I rather wouldn't include the media into the discussion as the media culture in the US is just broken and news networks are bordering on useless due to the level of bias they attach to the information presented irrelevant of the side they fall on (I have been following US sitation on CNN, MSNBC, Fox and Hill).



      Thanks on the kind offer but it is more likely at this point for Croatia to start helping others than needing help ourselves. We are currently among the world leaders how to do a proper response to a pandemic. Everything indicated that even at the peak we will not need more than 1/5 of our pre-pandemic ICU-s and ventilators :)

      I think US could learn a lot from us but I don't think much of US is culturally ready at this point in time.

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    • Giladis wrote:

      Ghiznuk wrote:

      Oh, you're one of those people because of whom everyone thinks my birthday is 1st September ?
      Because of Knowledge Day? Not sure I understand the question :)
      1st September is Saint-Gilles day, and it's my first name.
      So it happens that when I happen to be in some village and say my name, some of the villagers get up and look for a calendar to check what day is Saint-Gilles, assuming I got my name from said calendar.

      Of course, pretty normal when you are in a country where anyone being born on 1st January is called New-Year.

      So, you are Marko and born on Saint-Mark day

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    • Giladis wrote:

      echoCTRL wrote:

      2.2 BILLION is still an incredible amount, and deprives the rest of the world.
      Considering the size of China and the amount of PPE needed on a daily basis during an epidemic of this kind and if you want to use it as health regulations proscribe 2.2 billion is not as much as it looks. Especially since at the time when the purchase was made there were less than 0.3% of cases outside PRC.
      I agree with you that both types of testing are needed to get the proper picture but I refuse to accept that the richest country in the world is not capable of doing what needs to be done. well, you had good information about how the CDC screwed up the first month of testing. Was it incompetence or just inexperience because the U.S. has never dealt with something on this scale before. I think people make mistakes, and listening to the esteemed Dr. Faucci, even he was saying that the Flu was a bigger worry at the start of March. Mistakes were made. But, having money doesn't solve every issue, you cannot by time or space. The sheer volumes of needs, I feel, is beyond the scope of wealth to account for. It would be nice if wealth could account for it, we would all feel safer in this world if wealth were what was important in this, because we could cling to the idea of being in a rich nation as a means of protection. But, we are finding this isn't the case. Look at the U.S., Germany, and France, each of them isn't able to purchase their way out of this mess. The countries that are doing best are either smaller places or those that have strong local leaderships in place. Such as Hong Kong, which for its population is doing well because it is a strong localized government. Or even Croatia, I assume that your strong family ties and local government has had a big part in slowing the pandemic. From everything I have seen there is just plain reluctance to do what needs to be done at the highest levels of government and spreading downwards along mostly partisan lines. I read a good New Yorker article about the partisan divide. It seems conservatives were the first to take the virus seriously, but now the left takes the virus more seriously. If you are watching U.S. based media, I think what is desired by some pundits is a top down government response. Personally, I think what is truly required is a bottom up response that is supported by federal government, because the Federal government cannot manage everything. So, if you want a top down response you might feel like the U.S. Federal government isn't doing enough. And, if you want a bottom up response you may feel like the majority of States' Governors and Mayors are pretty piss poor at their jobs. Respect to: Gov. Gavin Newsom, for being competent and responsible. The unveiled ineptitude of local governments is the best arguing point for a top down approach.
      Display Spoiler
      I think the poor state and local leadership is the natural result of single issue candidates rising to prominence. Example: Michigan's Governor even has the Detroit Free Press calling her out.

      I rather wouldn't include the media into the discussion as the media culture in the US is just broken and news networks are bordering on useless due to the level of bias they attach to the information presented irrelevant of the side they fall on (I have been following US sitation on CNN, MSNBC, Fox and Hill).



      Thanks on the kind offer OUch, my bad, I was a little egotistical there, should have checked my privledge as it is said. but it is more likely at this point for Croatia to start helping others than needing help ourselves. We are currently among the world leaders how to do a proper response to a pandemic. Everything indicated that even at the peak we will not need more than 1/5 of our pre-pandemic ICU-s and ventilators :) awesome job. I am happy for you. Is some of it cultural? From previous conversations it seems that family is very expansive in Croatia. I cannot imagine close family ties being anything but super helpful in a time like this.

      I think US could learn a lot from us but I don't think much of US is culturally ready at this point in time. I would be open to hearing more about what we have to learn on this.
    • echoCTRL wrote:

      That whole situation needs to be quickly remedied. A quick fix and an "I'm Sorry, Canada." is in order.
      The USA doesn't really apologize. Not saying it shouldn't, but it just doesn't.

      Regarding Canada, we got a really mixed relationship with them. I mean, Canada is the only one to have sacked our capital...see war of 1812.
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      The post was edited 1 time, last by Chronocide ().

    • One of the things that happened to me that contributed to my overall unease and fear of the current worldwide situation were some miniatures I was recently painting.

      I was working on a squad of Death Korps of Krieg for the GW game Kill Team.

      I used resin bits from Victoria Miniatures. The classic soldiers with gas masks with WWI style German spiked helmets and greatcoats. I also decided to use large, round bases with bones.

      I started these guys in early March, before everything really got scary and there was the mass shut down due to the pandemic.

      Then about a week and a half ago it struck me what these guys were representing. Soldiers from a grim, dark future on a planet blasted by war, where the air has been made so toxic and so poisoned that it's been rendered unable to be breathed without it killing you. Forced to wear gas masks almost permanently. For a setting this grim I decided that bases covered in bones made sense and would complete the apocalyptic vision.

      The Death Korps of Krieg is dark, disturbing stuff. Even for 40k it's dark. Visually it's very disturbing and some would even say depressing or at least emotionally troubling and haunting.

      When I was done with the bases and had begun painting the actual soldiers, the pandemic deaths in New York City were accelerating and the situation in the U.S. overall was getting worse on a daily basis.

      And suddenly these five little miniatures felt like an abomination, almost like a mockery of what was happening in the real world. Obviously I didn't MEAN for them to be any kind of joke or mockery of the pandemic. But the fact that they couldn't breath the air and had to have their faces constantly covered, marching over fields of bone, hundreds of bodies piled so thickly you could step on them and never touch the ground.

      You see where I'm going with this.

      I personally LOVE fantasy and sci-fi settings that are dark and disturbing, their immersion value is immense and it offers opportunities to make unique terrain and play numerous scenarios that immerse you in that dark setting.

      But these five guys at this particular time hit too close to home with the suffering and death going on here in our real world.

      I finished painting them and now I'll put them away for a while. I don't feel like they belong on display at this particular time. I want people to understand that I'm not trying to be melodramatic or anything. I'm serious when I say that these miniatures for me crossed over too deeply into real life as it currently stands.

      Any way, here's pics. of the squad. I really like how they came out and I don't apologize for doing them. I just wasn't quite prepared for the reaction I ultimately had to them. ||

      ">">">">">
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    • Baranovich wrote:

      Then about a week and a half ago it struck me what these guys were representing. Soldiers from a grim, dark future on a planet blasted by war, where the air has been made so toxic and so poisoned that it's been rendered unable to be breathed without it killing you. Forced to wear gas masks almost permanently. For a setting this grim I decided that bases covered in bones made sense and would complete the apocalyptic vision.

      The Death Korps of Krieg is dark, disturbing stuff. Even for 40k it's dark. Visually it's very disturbing and some would even say depressing or at least emotionally troubling and haunting.
      Wow, you really aren't doing well. If the news makes you upset, trying ignoring it. Just don't watch it. Go find a TV show in reruns from before this covid19 mess and watch that. And obviously, don't watch anything post/during apocalypse (like walking dead would be a mistake).

      As for 40k, the whole 40k setting is just horrible. There are no good guys. The Imperium of Mankind, heroes of the setting, are basically Space Nazis. Then you have your Chaos, which is the faction thought that the Emperor wasn't an evil enough Space Nazi Fuhrer, so they splitered off to become a superior evil with the help of the Chaos Daemon Gods...

      And then you have the necrons, which were a slave race, that then rebelled against their masters (C'Tan) and then further enslaved their former masters....

      And it keeps going. No good alignments are welcome in 40k. Even neutral alignments are kinda iffy in the 40k setting.


      That said, GW has been making efforts to make the 40k setting more child appropriate. They even have kids books and they aren't opposed to dramatic changes to the 40k setting, like so:
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    • Those models look great, btw.

      If you don't want them in light of Covid19, I'm sure you could ebay them without issue. I'd also take any donations of those beautiful models that you'd be willing to give away... ;)

      Personally, I suggest "shelving" them if they are causing you to be upset. Maybe in a covered container. Because those are expensive models that you spent lots of time on and you should probably wait on selling them until you are in a good enough space to be rational about it.
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    • One you might like is, Dead Like Me.

      It's a "safe" drama/comedy for post 9/11/2001 America. Focus of the show seems aimed at providing a feeling of order in death and for the living to process the death of loved ones. By the second season, it ends very well.

      They do a good job providing a setting that isn't too morbid. Show doesn't get political or stab religions. A very good job staying neutral. And there's very little physical violence in the show (some emotional/verbal violence between sister and mother).

      It does swear a lot.

      Without giving too much away, protagonist dies in the first episode and becomes a Reaper. Show keeps a very "meh" attitude going the whole time. I know Amazon Prime streams it, not sure who else.
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